02/07/2020

During the COVID-19 pandemic, academics from across Cranfield have had their finger on the pulse when it comes to providing insights and thought-leadership on the impact the virus may have and the key issues we need to consider, outside of the immediate public health crisis. From the issues surrounding cyber security, international security, and the protection of refugees to the impact the virus could have on terrorism, Cranfield Defence and Security faculty have played a key role in ensuring the topics that matter are being discussed.

Read on for a summary of some of the recent thought-leadership from Cranfield Defence and Security.

Protecting refugees during COVID-19 – inclusivity is the way to move forward
In April, Dr Anicée Van Engeland, Senior Lecturer in International Security, highlighted the importance of protecting refugees and prioritising the health of those living in camps in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak.

As the pandemic sent shockwaves around the globe and fundamentally changed our daily way of life, Dr Van Engeland emphasised that refugees caught up in crowded camps needed to be at the heart of the COVID-19 response. In practice migrants, refugees and those awaiting clarification of their status often fall between the cracks of government policies, service providers and humanitarian organisations. These challenges need to be addressed in order to protect the health of those living in camps, and the host community.

The pandemic has highlighted a number of challenges, and various instances of a lack of clarity when it comes to the legal right to health and humanitarian protection for refugees. The way forward out of the COVID-19 crisis is inclusivity across government policies, healthcare systems and communities. This includes:

  • Setting out clear, international legal obligations and creating global solidarity when it comes to protecting the most vulnerable and providing security against infectious diseases.
  • Addressing the humanitarian protection challenge – acknowledging that displaced populations continue to be vulnerable to threats from violence and struggle to access public services and adequate shelter, and that COVID-19 will only heighten this challenge.
  • Addressing the challenges to infrastructure – for example, low income countries with already limited healthcare – and the lack of consistency across regional approaches.
  • Strengthening domestic healthcare systems and building international resilience at a community and universal level – Dr Van Engeland states that we must urgently build a “coherent health system that would go beyond addressing health as a security risk, putting health forward as a right for all.”

Read the article in full here.

The potential short and long-term impacts of COVID-19 on terrorism

In May a report authored by Pool Re and Professor Andrew Silke, Professor of Terrorism, Risk and Resilience, was published – providing an assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on terrorism.

While the lockdown measures may have inhibited the ability of terrorists to actually carry out attacks, the rise of propaganda and conspiracy theories connected to the virus alongside already stretched government and security resources are important factors to consider when it comes to mitigating against future attacks.

Key findings from the report include:

Propaganda may incite or inspire attacks

  • Lockdown measures tend to inhibit attacks, but terrorist propaganda calling for attacks will incite some incidents.
  • Propaganda, particularly that relating to far-right extremism, has focused on conspiracy theories connected to the virus, which has already inspired plots and attacks.
  • Islamist extremist propaganda has focused on the vulnerability of government opponents distracted by the outbreak and the opportunity this poses for attacks

Increased online extremist activity could lead to increased radicalisation

  • The report states that there has been a significant increase in online extremist activity, which in turn could increase short- and medium-term radicalisation.

States weakened by the fall-out from the pandemic could be more vulnerable to attacks

  • The long-term concern is that states weakened by the economic consequences of the pandemic will be more vulnerable to the resurgence/emergence of terrorist groups in many parts of the world.

COVID-19 may reignite terrorist interest in biological weapons

  • Professor Silke commented, “One genuine concern is that COVID-19 may lead to a resurgence in interest among terrorists for using chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons. Historically, a range of terrorist movements have been interested in bioterrorism though there have been very few successful attacks by terrorists using biological weapons. While serious obstacles certainly remain, the huge impact of COVID-19 may re-ignite some interest in biological weapons.”

Access the full report ‘COVID-19 and terrorism: assessing the short- and long-term impacts’ here.


Cyber security and the COVID-19 contact tracing app

A major feature in the government’s plans to control the spread of the coronavirus has been the much talked about development of a contact-tracing smartphone app, which would be able to alert people who have been in contact with an infected person while keeping the individual’s identity private. Health Secretary Matt Hancock suggested the app would “allow the UK to take a more targeted approach to lockdown” and that it would form the centrepiece of the tracing effort.

The first version of the app was revealed on 5 May. However, on 18 June the government admitted there were flaws to the app caused by technical issues – for example only 1 in 25 contacts were picked up on Apple phones, and the app didn’t work on Android phones that were more than four years old.

The government is currently operating a manual track and trace system, while working with Apple and Microsoft to create a new version of the app - the release of which is now significantly delayed. While the UK’s Test and Trace Chief, Dido Harding, has refused to put a timeline on when we can expect the app to launch, Junior Health Minister, Lord Bethell, was quoted by The Telegraph as saying that the contact-tracing app won’t be ready until the winter and it “isn’t the priority at the moment.”

Regardless of when the app launches, there will be a number of key technical and social issues to consider in order for it to be effective. In April, Dr Duncan Hodges – Senior Lecturer in Cyberspace Operations at Cranfield Defence and Security – outlined some of the vital considerations for the development and implementation of a contact-tracing app, stressing that while we should be doing everything in our power to stop the spread of the virus, we also need to understand the potential impact of using this type of technology.

The risk of further marginalising communities
It is important to ensure that communities who may have a low uptake of smartphone technology or a low appetite for supporting state engagement are not marginalised in the efforts to control the virus. Assuming that contract-tracing apps do have a positive impact in reducing the spread of COVID-19, there’s a risk that communities already disproportionately affected by the pandemic could be further disadvantaged.

Issues with Bluetooth accuracy and the risk of ‘false-positives’
Recent developments have shown that there are issues with relying on Bluetooth to accurately report contact with an infected person – with the originally developed NHS app only detecting 1 in 25 instances of contact. But Dr Hodges has also highlighted another potential issue with the technology – so-called ‘false-positives’.

The thinking behind the contact-tracing app technology operates on the assumption that Bluetooth is a valid proxy for physical contact and a virus transmission opportunity. However, Bluetooth can connect through thin walls, and in an open space may report ‘contact’ over a much wider range – in both instances contact could be reported in a situation where viral transmission is unlikely to have actually occurred.

This type of ‘false-positive’ – where a transmission opportunity is identified by the technology in a situation where there was no real opportunity for the virus to be transmitted – could result in a significant number of false warnings. There’s a risk of large numbers of people needlessly going into quarantine, while genuine transmission opportunities are missed amid the false-positives.

The need for transparency

One of the concerns around the app raised by a number of experts has been around privacy and the collection of sensitive data. Dr Yves-Alexandre de Montjoye, head of the Computational Privacy Group at Imperial College London, has warned that such apps could “collect sensitive information like location data”, and we need to use “solid and proven techniques” to handle this sensitive data at scale, in order to control the virus while also protecting people’s right to privacy.

Dr Hodges states that it needs to be made clear how data collected by the app is going to be stored and processed, and how the government is going to use this data after the end of the pandemic. There also needs to be a clear mechanism and rationale for users to be able to stop using the app, and guarantees that the gathered data won’t be used for purposes outside of its initial collection, in order to reassure users.

Read the press release here.

Hear more from Dr Duncan Hodges in our article on the increased risk of cyber-attacks during the COVID-19 outbreak.